Weekly Report Highlights + Chart in Focus: global equities, small caps, TAA review...
Exclusive Chart inside and Highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics & takeaways from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report:
1. Global ex-US: remain bullish global ex-US equities on both an absolute and relative basis given cheap valuations, bullish technicals, supportive macro-fundamentals.
2. Small Caps: remain bullish on US small caps given cheap valuations (vs history, vs large caps, vs bonds), supportive macro-fundamentals, contrarian bullish sentiment/positioning, bullish technicals.
3. China: revert to neutral on Chinese stocks given technical warning signs, pockets of AI speculative excess, and continued macro headwinds with insufficient policy support (for now).
4. Japan: revert to neutral given technical warning signs, significant re-rating in valuations already, rising interest rates, and fading earnings momentum.
5. TAA Review: overall continue to favor growth assets (global equities in particular), funding by underweight to cash and gold on the defensives side (as bonds look slightly positive medium-term).
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Pick of the Pack — Earnings Growth Estimates
This week’s pick of the pack (I had 42 charts to pick from!) shows Wall Street analyst consensus estimates of Long-Term Earnings Growth (which I previously covered for the USA in the Chart of the Week series) — and specifically it shows all 3 major buckets within Global Equities turning sharply higher this year.
This chart helps explain why emerging markets have outperformed USA and the rest of Developed Markets this year. But it also reflects some key themes like the AI boom/bubble, global growth reacceleration, and the swiftly evolving risk outlook facing investors in H2 and beyond… [click here to view the full report]
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Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
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SURVEY: We’re hours away from the Second Half of the year —what asset class do you think will perform the best in H2 2026?