Weekly Report Notes

Thoughts on: Korean equities, US small caps, Commodity prices, Agri commodities, and Bitcoin...

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it should give a good sense of what I tend to cover in the Topdown Charts Professional service as well as providing some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets:

1. Korea: Korean equities are starting to look cheap after a major reset, yet macro headwinds remain and there is a risk that the downturn goes further for longer (positioning unwind, earnings uncertainty).

2. Small Caps: remain bullish small caps despite recent weakness given cheap valuations, contrarian bullish sentiment/positioning, and reset in technicals (expect them to stabilize/rebound soon).

3. Commodities: see upside risk for commodities given macro tailwinds, constrained supply, thematic demand drivers, messier for longer geopolitics, and resurgent sentiment/positioning.

4. Agri Commodities: continue to see upside risk in agri commodities (as a group) given cheap valuations, soft capex, improving sentiment, weather risk (El Nino), geopolitics, and bullish technicals.

5. Bitcoin: somewhat optimistic on Bitcoin given improved technicals, still skeptical sentiment/positioning, but hesitant on mixed macro signals, lingering technical hurdles (overhead resistance).

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Best wishes,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research at Topdown Charts

Connect: LinkedIn | Twitter/X | Substack

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Also, in case you missed it: be sure to check out my previous note — in this post you will find more macro market musings + a key chart on LatAm Equities [and survey results from last week!]

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Learn more about Topdown Charts —> this post explains what Topdown Charts does + The Topdown Charts Framework for monitoring macro & markets to consistently generate profitable ideas:

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