Weekly Macro Themes Report: policy pulse, treasuries, REITs, Bitcoin, energy stocks
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics & takeaways from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report:
1. Policy Pulse: another global policy pivot is underway (from previous rate cuts to now increasing rate hikes), this will incrementally tilt risks to the downside for risk assets as the pivot progresses.
2. Treasuries: lean bullish on treasuries given compelling contrarian setup (cheap valuations, record low investor allocations, consensus bearish sentiment), but macro headwinds for bonds continue to linger.
3. REITs: somewhat constructive on REITs as they approach a potential breakout from consensus bearish sentiment and very light investor allocations, but ideally need to see lower bond yields to assist.
4. Bitcoin: remain low-conviction bullish as Bitcoin hangs onto support, with sentiment and seasonality still supportive. But wary of downside risks [bullish but on-watch].
5. Energy Stocks: revert to neutral as this one has run its course and worked to plan, no longer has the same favorable upside as previously (and now faces some downsides).
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Pick of the Pack — US REITs approaching breakout?
US REITs are coiling into an ascending triangle after basically a decade of range-trading. This comes as sentiment on real estate remains deeply pessimistic and investor allocations to REITs are at record lows. It also follows a major reset in the commercial real estate market and the opening up of a significant relative value gap. But there are a few issues to contend with, and as discussed in the latest report a few things still need to go right… [click here to view the full report]
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Callum Thomas
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