Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Reacceleration Risk: There is credible and growing evidence (leading indicators, survey data pulse, market pricing) for the global growth reacceleration risk scenario.
2. Recession Risk: Despite some recessionary pockets, recession risk overall is looking less likely (but not something to write-off entirely); keep monitoring, but downgrade risk.
3. Inflation: There is a clear and compelling case for inflation resurgence in the event of global growth reacceleration; this would mean a return of higher-for-longer risk.
4. Policy Pulse: The global monetary policy pivot remains in progress, with emerging and developing central banks in rate cut mode, and a long pause across developed markets.
5. Credit Spreads: Remain wary on credit spreads given complacent risk pricing levels, macro divergences, and lingering recession risks (set against asymmetric downside vs upside scope).
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