Weekly Macro Themes - 27 March 2026
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report:
1. Monetary Policy Pulse: given lack of underlying inflation pressures, steady but nascent global economic recovery; expect policy on hold globally (and to remain supportive for risk assets, growth).
2. US Stock/Bond Ratio: the stock/bond ratio is rolling over from stretched levels (stretched valuations, positioning, and technicals), history suggests caution (but recession risk is the key variable here).
3. GSV vs ULG Update: remain bullish on global/small/value vs US/large/growth as the relative technicals and valuation setup is attractive, but wary of technical developments for both groups in absolute terms.
4. Emerging Markets: wary of deteriorating technicals, but remain optimistic given longer-term technicals, solid earnings/macro momentum, light allocations, and reasonable valuations.
5. LatAm Equities: there is a solid underlying bullish setup (valuations, FX, policy, earnings), but we need to see the short-term technical test resolved on the bullish side to establish any new position.
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
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