Weekly Macro Themes - 25 July 2025
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics/ideas covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. This report is aimed at professional investors, and covers a mix of macro/ideas/risks, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics:
1. Global Policy Pulse: After delivering a substantial shift in policy stance (from headwind to tailwind for global growth + equities) central banks globally are beginning to wind-down the rate cut rush.
2. Thinking Fed Funds: Despite growing demands, there is currently no obvious reason for the Fed to reduce interest rates materially, unless you change the mandate/interpretation thereof or facts.
3. Stocks vs Bonds: It’s a watching brief on stocks vs bonds given valuation extremes, but awaiting tactical elements (macro, technicals) to be outright high conviction bearish.
4. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are back to rock-bottom, and along with stocks are basically at expensive levels; seasonal volatility updrafts suggest keeping a closer eye on credit.
5. Treasuries: US treasuries look cheap and likely perform well as a diversifier in a downturn, but multiple sources of higher-for-longer risk continue to linger.(positioning, ESG backlash run its course).
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
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