Weekly Macro Themes - 25 April 2025
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics/ideas covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. This report is aimed at professional investors, and covers a mix of macro/ideas/risks, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics:
1. Treasuries: There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds.
2. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk).
3. Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside).
4. Gold Miners: Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and troublesome technicals for miners +rapid move in valuations.
5. Agri: Remain vigilant of upside risks in agri commodity prices as investment in supply softens, weather indicators on the move, sentiment/positioning complacent; all set against an underlying uptrend.
n.b. This is a preview of the main weekly report from our institutional investment research service, subscribe to access the full report (+all the charts and analysis that underpin these comments) AND gain access to the archive of previous reports +the full stack of reports (including the Monthly, Quarterly packs, global markets intel updates, and webinars + Q&A calls).
“Pro“ TIP: if you are not sure about committing to an annual subscription yet, simply sign up for a monthly subscription first (just US$350/month) to try it out (you can cancel at any time; no lock-ins).
Corporate and Institutional
If you work at a fund manager/institution you may request a trial period and due diligence documents — simply Contact Us.
Otherwise, you can easily and simply self-onboard with the standard payment and subscription options (select either a single user or group subscription as relevant):
Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
Also, in case you missed it — the March Monthly Pack:
About the Topdown Charts Professional Service
Topdown Charts Professional is for portfolio managers, investment advisers, and serious investors who require high-quality in-depth asset allocation insights to help manage risk, make better decisions, and stay informed.
Our goal is to make your job easier. We seek to simplify a complex and fast changing world into clear, concise, actionable insights so you can spend less time trawling through reports, and more time on the main thing.
These insights and ideas are conveyed with precision, clarity, and efficiency in our chart-focused reports. The suite of reports provides a comprehensive set of resources to equip you to make investment decisions with confidence.
Click the button above to view sample reports, compare service level options, and learn more about the service + terms.
NEW: Services by Topdown Charts
Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [entry-level service]
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm — [US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold market charts]
Australian Market Valuation Book — [Aussie markets]