Weekly Macro Themes - 23 Aug 2024
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics/ideas covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. This report is aimed at institutional investors, and covers a mix of macro/ideas/risks, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. US Dollar: Bearish USD given initial breakdown, shifting sentiment, expensive valuations, long-term cycles, waning yield support, debt and deficits, and prospective policy convergence.
2. Stocks vs Bonds: Clear downside risk to the stock/bond ratio given absolute and relative valuations, shift in sentiment and technicals, and turn + divergences in key macro indicators.
3. EM Bonds: Remain bullish emerging market government bonds (US$ and local currency) given cheap valuations, peak rates and policy pivot, and promising technicals, sentiment.
4. Frontier Markets: Remain bullish on frontier market equities given cheap valuations (equities and FX), tailwinds from peaking policy rates, and strong technicals with a key upside trigger within reach.
5. Energy Sector + Oil Price: Crude oil prices are breaking down (but not out, as geopolitical risk lingers and demand/supply still looks supportive). Constructive on oil and gas (and renewable energy) stocks.
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Also, in case you missed it — the July Monthly Pack:
About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
Also part of the service is the monthly market cycle guidebook, global cross asset market monitor, and quarterly strategy pack.