Weekly Macro Themes - 21 February 2025
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's the topics/ideas covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. This report is aimed at professional investors, and covers a mix of macro/ideas/risks, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. China Macro: The macro outlook for China is getting less bad (property turning the corner, economic pulse improving), Chinese government bonds look expensive; expect stock/bond ratio to go higher.
2. US Housing: Monitoring downside risks in the US housing market as high servicing costs for new purchases bump up against stretched valuations and potential reversal of supportive policies (fiscal, migration).
3. Treasuries: It’s a case of mixed signals for the bond yield outlook as cheap valuations + bearish sentiment sound contrarian bullish, but inflation indicators + resurgence risk say higher for longer.
4. Global ex-US Equities: Bullish global vs US equities given the high valuation hurdle for US vs low bar for global, link with macro scenario (reacceleration), and tentative technical turning point signs showing up.
5. Defensive Value: Remain bullish on this alternative hedge/diversifier given extreme cheap relative value, record low investor allocations, and a set of promising technical signs of a turning point in progress.
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
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The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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