Weekly Macro Themes - 17 May 2024
Key highlights from the latest report...
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:
1. Agri: See upside risk for agri commodity prices as technicals turn up and sentiment, positioning, value look bullish (also constructive on global agri equities).
2. Japan: Japan is seeing fundamental breakouts to match the stockmarket breakout, but remains cheap vs history, vs nGDP growth, and vs global peers (and investors remain skeptical, underallocated).
3. China Property: China’s property market downturn went from bad to worse in April, but the upside is that the government has announced a string of measures to turn it around.
4. Chinese Equities: Bullish Chinese equities given cheap valuations, significantly improved technicals, policy (reduction of property risks, boost to confidence), and sentiment.
5. Emerging Markets: Remain bullish EM equities given improving technicals, sentiment, central bank pivots, cheap valuations, sector skews, and long-term cycles in EM vs DM relative performance.
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is part of our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights.
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