Market Cycle Guidebook - September 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
We’ve just published the latest "Market Cycle Guidebook" — it’s one of the main reports in our institutional research service (see details + key findings below).
The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is a key resource for multi-asset investors — providing insight into the stage of the business cycle, monetary policy trends, leading indicators, earnings momentum, valuations across multiple different assets and markets, long-term return expectations, and tactical asset allocation views.
Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:
Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to increasing tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation.
The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.
The US faces heightened risk of recession given policy uncertainty and confidence shocks from the chaotic start to the year, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex.
Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).
Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of the cycle are US tech stocks, US housing, US dollar, and US credit (spreads).
Areas which see superior upside risk/reward meanwhile include government bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and certain sectors on a tactical basis such as defensives, small caps, and frontier + emerging markets.
Clearly some of these will benefit significantly under the different recession vs reacceleration scenarios.
Rotation and Relative value are thus key themes along with smart diversification and risk management (diversify diversifiers, progressively upweight more attractively priced diversifiers, portfolio strategy and signals).
(check out the full report to see all the charts, views, and recommendations)
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Alternatively you can take a short-term trial to see if it’s a fit with your research needs.
More information About the Monthly Pack
The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical & tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors +those who require visibility and insight on the big picture macro-risk outlook.
The images below provide a sense of what’s covered:
The pack focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the objective of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.
The pack is of particular use to those with a longer-term timeframe and who need fact-based chart-driven evidence to support decision making, or those who take shorter-term positions but still want a pulse-check on the macro trends and themes that will ultimately filter through to short-term market outcomes.
Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook:
-Instant overview of: global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations
-Market performance snapshot & commentary/highlights
-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); "cheat sheet"
-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views to recommended positioning
-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions
-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe
-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)
Click through to Learn More about this report and our services, or go ahead and subscribe now to benefit from ongoing access to this service (which is used by some of the largest and most reputable fund managers around the world):
See also: last week I sent out the Q4 Strategy Pack & 2026 Outlook — covered some very interesting charts and highly important themes for the coming months…
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Otherwise, you can easily and simply self-onboard right away with the standard payment and subscription options [base rate is US$3500/user/year or US$350 if subscribing on a month-to-month basis] — simply select either a single user or group subscription as relevant below:
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Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder, Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
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