Market Cycle Guidebook - March 2025
Asset class views, macro outlook, long-term expectations, and over 70 charts tracking macro policy, cycle data, and valuations across a global multi-asset universe...
We’ve just published the latest "Market Cycle Guidebook" — it’s one of the main reports in our institutional research service (see details + key findings below).
The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is a key resource for investors — providing insight into the stage of the business cycle, monetary policy trends, leading indicators, earnings momentum, valuations across multiple different assets and markets, long-term return expectations, and tactical asset allocation views.
Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:
Global monetary policy settings are increasingly shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and economic cycle data remain soft.
The big edge risks are recession and deflation on one edge vs reacceleration and inflation resurgence on the other edge.
In practice given what has gone on in the US so far this year, it is now likely that the US economy faces a recession or at least short-sharp-slowdown.
Meanwhile the rest of the world may well hold OK (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulus, potential for increased non-US multilateral trade).
This makes for a more bifurcated outlook
Among the asset classes most at risk given valuations and the stage of the cycle are US tech stocks, US housing, US dollar, and US credit (spreads).
Indeed, there are clear signs that the US stockmarket has turned the corner into a cyclical downturn, which is likely to take months and much further significant valuation adjustment to run its course.
Areas which see superior upside risk/reward meanwhile include government bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and certain sectors on a tactical basis such as defensives, gold(miners), and frontier markets.
Rotation and Relative value are thus key themes along with smart diversification and risk management (diversify diversifiers, tactically upweight more attractively priced diversifiers + when technicals align: these matters are also discussed in our Weekly Macro Themes report, which covers specific ideas, risks, and tactical opportunities).
(check out the full report to see the charts, views, and recommendations)
The best way to try out the Topdown Charts Professional service and get instant access to the latest reports + archive is to take a monthly subscription at US$350/month — n.b. you can cancel at any time.
More information About the Monthly Pack
The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical & tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors +those who require visibility and insight on the big picture macro-risk outlook.
The images below provide a sense of what’s covered:
The pack focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the objective of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.
The pack is of particular use to those with a longer-term timeframe and who need fact-based chart-driven evidence to support decision making, or those who take shorter-term positions but still want a pulse-check on the macro trends and themes that will ultimately filter through to short-term market outcomes.
Pick of the Pack — Expected Returns
One reason why the global vs US equity rotation trade we have seen this year is so interesting is because it comes against a backdrop of very low expected returns for US equities and comparatively and absolutely high expected returns for global stock markets.
A big driver of this is starting point valuations — the US stockmarket (and in particular tech stocks, but non-tech is also not cheap) were trading on multi-decade highs earlier this year, while the rest of the world were trading on cheap/reasonable valuations. Along with expected growth, buyback and dividend yields, this has meant a clear divide between US vs global equity expected returns.
It is likely that we see further and sustained rotation from US to global equities in the coming months and years as the US likely heads into recession (+ongoing policy uncertainty), US dollar weakens, and global ex-US holds up OK given their stage of the cycle and stimulus efforts. Aside from the value and macro/fundamental story, the technicals are also looking much improved. So a key theme for investors that has been a long-time coming.
Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook:
-Instant overview of: global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations
-Market performance snapshot & commentary/highlights
-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); "cheat sheet"
-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views to recommended positioning
-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions
-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe
-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)
Click through to Learn More about this report and our services, or go ahead and subscribe now to benefit from ongoing access to this service (which is used by some of the largest and most reputable fund managers around the world):
Corporate & Institutional Clients
Get in touch if you need other payment options (for example, CSA payments and manual invoicing is also available if required), or pricing for teams/multiple users — if relevant you may request a trial, introductory call, or due diligence documentation to help with approvals and onboarding.
Otherwise, you can easily and simply self-onboard right away with the standard payment and subscription options [base rate is US$3500/user/year or US$350 if subscribing on a month-to-month basis] — simply select either a single user or group subscription as relevant below:
If you have any other questions or requests, just get in contact (n.b. you can reply to this email or reach me at callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com).
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder, Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
NEW: Services by Topdown Charts
Weekly S&P 500 ChartStorm — [US Equities in focus]
Monthly Gold Market Pack — [Gold market charts]
Topdown Charts Entry-Level — [entry-level service]
Australian Market Valuation Book —[Aussie markets]