Market Cycle Guidebook - December 2023

We’ve just published the latest "Market Cycle Guidebook", which is one of the main reports in our institutional investment research service.

​​The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is designed to be a practical & tactical asset allocation guidebook for global multi-asset investors.

It focuses on illuminating the key drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe, with the intention of generating actionable conclusions and meaningful insights for medium-term active asset allocation decisions.

(preview of front page of the report below)

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Key features of the Market Cycle Guidebook:

-Instant overview of: global economic cycle, monetary policy, and valuations
-Market performance snapshot & commentary/highlights
-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term); "cheat sheet"
-TAA/DAA guide visually mapping those views to recommended positioning
-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions
-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe
-Australia/New Zealand appendix (since we're down this part of the world!)

>> Some of the key takeaways from the latest edition:

-The global growth pulse continues to down-cycle [see Global Cycle Map]
--leading indicators point to recession as monetary tightening hits
--hard data indicators show clear signs of slowdown
--inflation has peaked and is steadily falling
--soft data stabilizing but recessionary
--yet there are some confounding factors…

-Central banks move into pause mode, and even pivot in places
--the Fed pause is in play, likewise for many others
---even pivot: at least on the frontiers of global monetary policy
---EM has collectively pivoted to rate cuts
----(and China —moving towards likely eventual larger stimulus)
--the bulk of tightening is likely now behind us
---albeit the damage may already have been done (long + variable lags)
----and the global economy now faces a “monetary wall“

-Remain cautious, and highly selective in allocations
--Value in government bonds, commodities, defensive stocks, EM
-Cyclically bullish on commodities (previous bearish)
--medium-term technical signals say risks more evenly balanced now
--underinvestment means a new higher floor price across commodities
-Remain underweight US equities, property (CRE), credit medium-term
--(but) a few notable bright spots, and attractive relative value opportunities
--expect global recession to dent sales/earnings, demand, sentiment
--many key assets still priced for perfection (and not recession)
-Yet also mindful of the macro-edge-risks (both edges)

-n.b. this month we’ve switched a few of the regular charts around (initial steps as part of a wider program of improvement and never-ending refinement)

The report is designed for active asset allocators, and professional investors who require top-down input in their investment process. Click through to Learn More about this report and our services, or go ahead and subscribe now:

Alternatively » we provide a summary version of this report and its key outputs in our NEW Entry-Level Service — handy for those who are either budget and/or time constrained.

If you have any other questions or requests, just get in contact.

Best regards,

Callum Thomas
Head of Research and Founder

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Our Head of Research and founder spent his career on the buy-side, and our reports reflect that perspective with a clear "so what?" focus rather than research for research sake. The reports are punchy and chart+fact focused, and are easy to read both in terms of speed and understanding: so clients often end up saving time and getting better insights. So if you're looking for a dedicated specialist service to help you deliver excellent returns for your clients, give us a try.