Weekly Macro Themes Report: Gold risk, EM equities reevaluation, EM bonds update

Key highlights from the latest report...

Here's the topics & takeaways from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report:

1. Gold: gold faces significant downside risk given major technical deterioration from a previous starting point of extreme expensive valuations, consensus bullishness (+fading tailwinds).

2. EM Equities: longer-term bullish bias, but switching to neutral for now given downside risks arising from the shift in valuations/sentiment, policy pivot, and short-term overheating (Korea/AI bubblet).

3. EM Fixed Income: switch to neutral from previously bullish due to rising inflation risk, resultant pivot to rate hikes by EM central banks, and slight deterioration in sentiment/technicals.

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Pick of the Pack [Chart View]

Our composite investor sentiment indicator for Emerging Markets helps illustrate two things. Firstly, it was one of the key pieces of evidence that got me bullish on EM equities back in early-2023. Second it has come full circle now, and is in the risk flag zone, and as such has once again helped change my view as outlined in the latest report. [click here to view the full report]

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Best wishes,

Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas

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