Weekly Macro Themes Report - 13 December 2024
Weekly Macro Themes - 13 Dec 2024 - Volume 9, Edition 32
Click the link above to download the report.
Topics & Takeaways
1. Stocks vs Bonds: Bearish stocks vs bonds given valuations, technicals, macro. Also mindful of the favorable setup for commodities vs stocks (commodities likely win in resurgence, vs bonds recession).
2. Credit Spreads: Remain cautious on credit spreads given expensive valuations, wider complacency on risk pricing, and mixed macro signals.
3. Tech Stocks: Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records, and sees them trading at a significant premium vs history, vs non-tech stocks, and vs global TMT stocks.
4. Global vs US Equities: The new extreme relative value gap in global vs US stocks is compelling, but we need to see relative earnings and/or the US dollar turn to see price sustainably turn.
5. US Dollar (+The US Premium): Remain bearish USD despite short-term signs of strength given larger technical picture (significant long-term resistance), expensive valuations, fiscal/monetary headwinds.
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com
Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com