Weekly Macro Themes - 31 October 2025 - Volume 10, Edition 27
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Topics & Takeaways
1. US Dollar: Remain bearish US dollar given expensive valuations, fading yield support, long-term cycles turning and emerging downtrend (but wary of short-term upside risks).
2. Treasuries: Continue to lean bullish on treasuries given cheap valuations, bearish sentiment, historically low allocations by investors, and tentatively turning technicals (but a make-or-break moment).
3. EMFX: Much in line with the bearish USD bias, lean bullish EMFX given cheap valuations, mixed-but-positive short-term + bullish medium/longer-term technicals [and bullish EM fixed income].
4. Japan: Remain bullish Japanese equities given much improved macro/fundamentals (both cyclical and structural), cheap valuations, and still light allocations by global investors.
5. Small Caps: Remain bullish US small caps given improved technicals, cheap absolute + relative valuations, and contrarian signals (flows and allocations).
Best regards,
Callum Thomas
Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com
Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com