Weekly Macro Themes - 14 November 2025
Key highlights from the latest report...
Hi there,
Firstly, in case you missed it, see: 2026 Big Ideas Outlook webinar [replay]
And back to the usual note, here's the topics I covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]:
1. Lending Standards: Global bank lending surveys show little change in lending standards, and improved loan demand; supporting the global growth reacceleration theme.
2. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are at expensive/complacent levels, and while the macro aspect is somewhat benign for now, there are a few key areas to keep close monitoring.
3. Stocks vs Bonds: Valuations (absolute and relative), sentiment/positioning, and long-term cycles warn of downside risks to the stock/bond ratio; pay close attention to risk triggers here.
4. Global ex-US Equities: Bullish global ex-US equities on cheap absolute and relative valuations, strong technicals, and monetary tailwinds (central bank easing and weaker dollar).
5. GSV vs ULG Update: Continuing to monitor the widening valuation extremes between global vs US, small vs large, and value vs growth, with an eye on technicals (no turning point yet).
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Thanks and best regards,
Callum Thomas
Founder & Head of Research at Topdown Charts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callum-thomas-4990063/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas
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