Weekly Macro Themes - 11 November 2022
Inflation, Credit Spreads Outlook, US Dollar Directions, Asian Equities, EM ex-Asia
Weekly Macro Themes - 11 November 2022 - Volume 7, Edition 36
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Topics & Takeaways
1. Inflation: Globally inflation remains high but peaking on some metrics; economic downdrafts likely drive disinflation in 2023, but still way too early to talk monetary easing (by the Fed).
2. Credit: Tighter bank lending standards, tighter financial conditions, and weakening economic outlook all suggest caution on credit.
3. US Dollar: Bearish US dollar given expensive valuations, overcrowded sentiment/positioning, and anticipated progressive removal of the previous powerful pillars of support.
4. AEJ Equities: The value story is falling into place for Asian equities, but the macro/cycle aspects are not playing along yet; also waiting/watching for more compelling China catalysts.
5. EM ex-Asia Equities: Also seeing a solid value setup for Emerging ex-Asia, but not enough to favour one over the other; rather = important evidence as part of the emerging picture for EM equities in general.
Please reach out to clarify, or if I can help with anything.
Have a great weekend!
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