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The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 02032026

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Rotation remained the key theme last week with global/ex-tech (especially hard cyclicals: industrials, energy, materials) performing well, and US/tech weaker.

In fixed income, US treasury yields ticked lower (likewise developed 10yr govt yields), and US credit spreads/CDS ticked up off the lows.

FX markets remain in a bit of a stalemate with previous USD weakness pausing, but ongoing strength in Asian/EMFX especially CNY. Commodities remain a mixed bag, industrial metals consolidating, precious metals pushing higher, energy elevated and agri mixed.

Market themes: Market Risk...
-Geopolitics rarely have a lasting impact on the stockmarket, unless it damages the macro or comes on top of other issues.
-There is some vulnerability for US stocks as valuations and sentiment are rolling over from overvalued/overhyped conditions (especially tech), so it warrants close monitoring.
-But there are some offsetting factors.

I don’t have much to add on Iran/geopolitics specifically, but in general geopolitical events normally don’t tend to have much enduring impact on the stockmarket beyond the short-term spooky/scary effects unless they really damage the macro in a meaningful way... or if they turn up at the wrong time (e.g. if there were already issues, market was rolling over from stretched conditions). For example, in 2022 the Russian invasion of Ukraine catalyzed the beginning of a bear market, but it came as the market already peaked from overhyped/overvalued conditions in late-2021... and specifically it featured a commodity price spike due to direct effects of the conflict and the sanctions reaction (which drove up already rising inflation and rates).

In the current context, there are actually some parallels e.g. sentiment and valuations rolling over from overhyped and overvalued levels. This means the market is perhaps more sensitive and at risk of downside, but again I think we’d probably need to see the macro damaged from an enduring spike in energy prices and disruption to global trade flows (hard to say at this point, it is a risk, but no firm evidence for this as yet).

The more concerning aspect is that tech stocks have already peaked from overvalued and overhyped starting conditions, and so I would continue to be focused more on that, but also factoring in the risk of oil shock issues.

Having said that, the market had already been pricing in some risk of Iran strikes, so part of that uncertainty has been resolved, and we are seeing the bullish rotation trade (strong absolute and relative performance from cyclicals/global/value/small -- picking up the slack from weakness in tech stocks, and reflecting macro-fundamental improvements). So I don’t think we necessarily panic or go full-bear just yet, as there are offsetting factors. Continuing to monitor the situation.

Macro & Markets: This week we get Feb PMIs and payrolls.

In markets, the US 10yr yield is breaking lower, DXY drifting higher, gold extending rally, WTI crude making initial spike higher on Iran developments, Bitcoin mixed-volatile, stocks mixed (tech lackluster, cyclical/value stronger).

Research Agenda: This week I’m working on the monthly pack.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. GSV vs ULG: remain bullish Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth on absolute and relative valuations (with ample room to run), and notably improved technicals.

2. EM Equities: remain bullish EM equities given strong technicals, breakout in earnings, and strong cyclical momentum overall, but wary of stretched sentiment (+valuations no longer cheap).

3. EM Fixed Income: remain low-conviction bullish on EM sovereign bonds given cheap valuations, improving sentiment/technicals, monetary tailwinds (for now), and benign macro-risk backdrop.

4. EMFX: the improving outlook for EMFX (cheap valuations, improved technicals) is helping reinforce strength in EM equities and EM local currency bonds.

5. Frontier Markets: monitoring situation as valuations are getting expensive (+technical risk flags), but for now still seeing strong bullish momentum and monetary tailwinds.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 23022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 23022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks remain a bit of a mixed bag, with US consolidating (tech down, ex-tech up), and global continuing to advance (global equity bull market very much alive and well by all accounts + rotation remains in play).

In fixed income, treasury yields continue to see downward pressure, but still confined within the range (awaiting catalyst one way or the other i.e. growth scare/risk-off vs inflation/reacceleration). Credit spreads have ticked up off the lows, but the main point of interest in credit markets has been the continued uptrend in tech sector CDS pricing (and emerging downtrend in tech stock prices).

In FX, it’s a picture of consolidation and stalemate. Commodities continued to see mixed prospects, but this time with energy prices picking up vs industrial metal prices coming off the boil, and precious metals still volatile, and agri soft. The Iran situation continues to develop, with ostensible progress/posturing on negotiations for a deal, but otherwise a steady and substantial build-up of US strike + defense capabilities in the region; which is helping energy prices tend to the bullish side (and energy stocks starting to catch-up vs the rest of commodity stocks).

Market themes: US Dollar Outlook...
-DXY is ticking up off support (and oversold conditions)
-Technicals point to risk of a short-term rally
-Yet the bigger/longer-term picture still looks bearish as a larger downtrend looks to be developing (consistent with some of the other macro/market developments).

The DXY has been ticking up off short-term support (and the lower end of its downtrend channel), and with breadth reaching oversold levels. Technically it looks primed for a short-term rally even if the overarching trend still looks to be downwards.

Meanwhile sentiment and positioning have been turning up from previously consensus bearish and crowded shorts, and FX market implied volatility has similarly turned up following a crunch to multi-year lows (we often see contractions and surges in volatility around turning points -- either prior to a change in trend e.g. upwards in this case, or a trend acceleration e.g. a breakdown in this case). Given the developing short-term bullish technicals it warrants close monitoring for possible USD strength flare-ups (which would hurt many of the consensus trades like commodities and global/EM equities).

Yet the bigger picture is still skewed to the bearish side, it still has the look and feel of a bearmarket/downtrend developing, valuations are still slightly expensive, and yield support indicators are still tapering downwards.

So I would continue with the overall medium/longer-term bearish bias, but meanwhile mindful of the short-term upside risks.

Macro & Markets: This week we get US house prices, consumer confidence, PPI, and mid-week Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address.

In markets, US 10yr yield hovering at support, DXY attempting to rally, gold attempting breakout from consolidation, WTI crude pressuring resistance, bitcoin breaking lower, stocks mixed…

Research Agenda: This week I’ll be reviewing fixed income, commodities, equities.

(n.b. there was no Weekly Macro Themes last week as I was moving and did not have time to complete the report, this week will proceed as normal)

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 16022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 16022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Rotation remains the key word, with strengthening absolute returns in cyclicals/global outperforming vs faltering tech/US. Notably, we are starting to see defensive stir (rather than just tech-to-cyclicals rotation so far; more on this issue further down).

In fixed income, late-week saw US 10yr yields ticking lower after an initial run higher. Also of note in the fixed income space has been new highs in tech sector CDS pricing, as tech stock weakness is spilling over into credit markets (isolated to tech for now).

In FX, the USD remains under pressure, Asian/EMFX tending stronger (particularly CNY). Commodities remain a mixed bag yet a common theme is consolidation following previous initial strength (especially in areas of previous recent strength e.g. precious metals).

Market themes: Defensives...
-Defensive stocks made new relative highs late last week.
--this is coming from extreme low allocations and relative valuations.
-Relative strength in defensives is a contrarian bearish risk signal for stocks.

A key development late last week was new relative highs in defensives vs the S&P500, with the equal-weighted basket of defensives breaking out vs its 200-day moving average to multi-month highs (and with bullish relative breadth divergence). This is an important development because defensives were looking stretched to the downside (a contrarian bearish risk signal for stocks), and if this marks the start of a sustained/larger move higher that would be bearish for US stocks (which are already on thin ice with the tech troubles).

As noted, defensives were and are still looking stretched; investor allocations are ticking up from record lows, and the relative value indicator for defensives is ticking up from levels very close to matching those seen at the peak of the dot com bubble. So a promising setup for defensives (in relative terms), and concerning one for the stockmarket as a whole).

Sector-by-sector, consumer staples and utilities have seen the biggest relative gains, but healthcare also looks primed to move higher after a period of consolidation.

Overall there is a consistent picture here.

Macro & Markets: This week we get US NAHB, FOMC minutes, Philly Fed, and Q4 GDP figures. We also get the Feb flash PMIs, and a reminder that China is closed for Chinese New Year this week.

In markets, US 10yr yields are pushing lower, DXY holding support, gold consolidating around 5k, crude oil hovering at short-term support, stocks mixed (S&P500 down to support — but tech down, cyclicals holding up).

Research Agenda: This week I’ll be digging into fixed income and FX, but also of course keeping tabs on tech.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. US Tech Stocks – Risk-Watch: US tech stocks have seen a significant deterioration in technicals following the peak back in October 2025, there is material risk of larger downside for tech stocks (and risk to US stocks in general) given expensive starting point valuations and excesses in sentiment/positioning.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 09022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 09022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks were somewhat volatile last week, with rotation a key theme. On the sector front, tech and consumer discretionary have been losing ground, while traditional cyclicals have been gaining, and defensives mixed (staples gaining ground). Global stocks continue to gain vs US.

On the fixed income front, treasury yields remain largely in a holding pattern following the initial bounce off the lows. US credit spreads moved slightly higher off the lows.

In FX, the US dollar remains under pressure, Asian/EMFX on an improving path. Commodities remain a volatile and mixed bag, crude oil consolidating, precious metals finding support, agri mixed, industrial metals trending higher.

Market themes: Global Equity Rotation...
-Rotation is the word of the year so far for stocks.
-Seeing previous out-of-favour pairs moving the most (value vs growth, small vs large, EM vs DM).
-A key element has been the peak in (US) Tech in both absolute and relative terms, and there’s a decent chance we see a continuation of these recent trends.

The standouts in styles/factors have been quality, high dividend yield, value vs growth, small vs large, and EM vs DM.

The rotation trade has been most noticeable and most notable in the 3 key pairs that have seen the longest and most extended moves, namely; value vs growth, EM vs DM, small vs large -- basically the long-standing out of favourables. The sharp move in the combined line for those 3 is significant given it comes after a long-term downtrend. But also in so far as it might signal a change in market leadership -- this can have bearish implications for global equities e.g. the unwinding of the dot com bubble, but we have seen this group carry the market higher before e.g. just after the 08 crash, and briefly in 2021.

Looking at it from a sectors angle, both cyclicals and defensives have turned up vs tech; notably ex-tech cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy, financials) have staged a particularly sharp rally vs tech. Meanwhile both EM and DM have been gaining ground vs US stocks.

Staying with tech, the big story has been US tech topping in both absolute and especially relative terms. US tech has taken a tumble vs US non-tech and global ex-US tech after extended exponential runs on both fronts.

Given this is also occurring alongside stretched absolute and relative valuations for US tech, it is something to keep an eye on from a risk perspective, but also as a source of potential further rotation flows, if investors start giving up on tech and looking elsewhere for gains.

Macro & Markets: This week we get China M2/new loans and CPI/PPI, US NFIB small business confidence, delayed Jan payrolls release, and CPI.

In markets, US 10yr yield still in consolidation mode, DXY hovering around support, gold regaining momentum around 5k, WTI crude back to support, Bitcoin initial rebound from precipitous declines of the past week, stocks rebounding off support…

Research Agenda: I’ll be looking into credit spreads, EM fixed income, tech stocks, and agri commodities, among other things this week.

And, in case you missed it -- the January monthly pack was sent out last week.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 02022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 02022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks largely in consolidation mode across most markets last week. Rotation remains a key theme. One area of particular interest has been listed infrastructure, which has seen surging flows on the back of thematic aspects e.g. AI (datacenters, electrical utilities), general infrastructure (re)building in developed economies, but also commodity-linked infrastructure.

In fixed income rates have been largely in a holding pattern, but notably up off the lows. Credit spreads and CDS pricing remain contained around the lows, but volatility is starting to pickup in commodities and FX.

In FX, the US dollar remains under pressure, just about every other major currency/group gaining against the USD (and commodity currencies in particular gaining ground). Commodities as a group are gaining ground; energy and industrial metals buoyant, agri mixed, and precious metals overall a picture of strength but increasingly volatile (especially silver; down large double-digits on Friday).

Market themes: Industrial Metals...
-Industrial metals have seen big breakouts.
--but are approaching technically troublesome areas.
-Expect monetary metals (gold, silver) to become more volatile as the macro environment begins to shift more in favor of base metals.

Industrial metals have had a strong run in recent weeks and months, chalking up big breakouts. This partly reflects an improving global growth outlook, but also rising thematic demand (e.g. especially copper for the rise of EV’s, electrification, robotics, and AI). Short-term though copper is hitting the upper end of its trend channel, and the GSCI industrial metals index is approaching levels where a similar rally previously stalled.

Global industrial metal mining stocks have likewise been surging, confirming the strength in industrial metal prices. But another key intermarket dynamic that has been playing out is basically a transition in leadership from monetary metals as the debasement trade plays through and on the back of monetary + fiscal easing -- to now nascent strength in industrial metals as growth begins to turn up.

Indeed, we likely see precious metals become more volatile as we enter the later innings of the precious metals bull market, and improve growth drives rotation and flows into more cyclical aspects like base metals.

Macro & Markets: This week we get all the January PMIs, rate decisions from the RBA, BoE, ECB, and payrolls.

In markets, US 10yr yield pressuring resistance, DXY rebounding after initial breakdown, major pullback in gold off the highs, initial pullback in WTI crude from resistance, bitcoin breaking down, stocks down slightly but still trending higher…

Research Agenda: I’ll be working on the monthly pack this week.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. GSV vs ULG: bullish Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth as clear signs of bullish rotation emerge against a backdrop of record cheap relative value.

2. Global Equities (ex-US): remain bullish global ex-US equities given attractive valuations, strong technicals, monetary tailwinds, and improving macro-fundamentals.

3. Small (+Mid) Caps: remain bullish small caps given cheap absolute and relative valuations, light allocations, prospect of bullish rotation, and improving technicals.

4. Value vs Growth: constructive on value vs growth given an initial improvement in technicals from extremes in relative price and extremes in relative value.

5. Defensives: on watch for relative upside given extreme cheap relative value (and record low allocations, market cap), but the trend is not their friend as cyclicals lead the charge for now.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 26012026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 26012026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks into a bit of consolidation last week, but still progress on rotation to global vs US. In sectors seeing commodity sectors gaining ground (especially materials; given strength in precious metals + base metals), tech and tech related still lagging, and defensives consolidating.

Treasury yields are up off the lows across the curve, but still volatile and no decisive moves as yet. Credit spreads and risk pricing remain calm and confident.

In FX, the US dollar is losing ground on a fairly broad basis. Commodities still mixed, energy up off the lows, precious metals going strong, base metals elevated but consolidating, livestock up, agri down.

Market themes: Commodities & EMFX
-Commodities are seeing good follow-through in their upside breakout.
-EMFX is also starting to perk up (especially EM ex-Asia).
-EM equities ex-Asia and commodities are seeing good cross-confirmation, and overall these are bullish developments for EM and commodities.

Commodities are heating up, the GSCI light energy index is seeing significant follow-through in its breakout. The key driver has been precious metals, but increasingly also base metals. Meanwhile crude oil appears to have found a floor for now with a combination of geopolitics and growth helping offset the oversupply narratives. Overall very bullish technical picture for commodities.

On a similar and somewhat related note, EMFX is also starting to pickup; extending its gains after reversing from its failed breakdown in 2024/25 and following-through on its breakout back above support. Much of the strength is coming through in EM ex-Asia (which in a number of respects is an echo of the renewed strength in commodities we’re seeing).

Indeed, looking at the chart of commodities and EM ex-Asia equities, we can see clear cross-confirmation, and on that note a big part of EM ex-Asia is LatAm; which is likewise undergoing a major breakout (the geopolitical risk window has come, happened, and gone, and likely fades further as attention shifts to Iran).

So overall some promising bullish developments for commodities and emerging markets.

Macro & Markets: This week we get US house prices, consumer confidence, PPI, and interest rate decisions from the Fed and Bank of Canada.

In markets, US 10yr yield and DXY pulling back after initial moves higher, gold pushing higher into 5000, WTI crude pressuring resistance, bitcoin making a run on support, stocks consolidating…

Research Agenda: Will be looking into global equities, risk-on/growth themes.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. Treasuries: Cheap valuations, very low allocations, and consensus bearish sentiment/positioning make for a contrarian bullish setup, but the tactical elements are lacking right now (monitoring the situation).

2. Inflation Risk: The risk of a second wave of inflation is credible, and therefore higher-for-longer risk remains a threat for nominal bonds (but may help TIPS[breakevens]).

3. Stocks vs Bonds: The longer-term/strategic charts are pointing to downside risk for stocks vs bonds, but the tactical elements are opposite (bullish technicals, benign macro).

4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Remain vigilant to upside risk in the oil price, and in particular for energy stocks (which are under-allocated, undervalued, and under-the-radar despite promising technicals).

5. Japan Equities: Remain bullish Japanese equities given the improved macro-fundamental backdrop, scope for upside valuation re-rating, light allocations by global investors, still positive ERP.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 19012026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 19012026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks broadly stronger last week, especially global (non-US). On sectors, materials and industrials gaining significant ground, tech and defensives lagging.

Treasury yields basing across the curve (short-term rates stopped going down), breakevens ticking up slightly. CDS/Credit spreads probing the lows.

In FX, the DXY remains range-bound for now, likewise Asian/EMFX in consolidation mode. Commodities remain a mixed bag with industrial and precious metals largely stronger, energy and oil prices particularly volatile, and agri/livestock also mixed-weaker.

Market themes: European Equities...
-European stocks continue to trend higher post-breakout.
--Sentiment remains pessimistic; which is helping contribute to the upside.
--In real CPI adjusted terms the breakout also looks good (albeit still much lower than previous peaks
--Relative to US stocks Europe remains range-bound.
-While geopolitical risk remains a big issue (e.g. the weekend developments), there are a lot of favorable factors that likely help driver further follow-through here.

Although the latest Trump-talk this weekend likely rattles things when markets open again, European equities have been pushing onwards to fresh new highs --following on from their big breakout last year. Sentiment meanwhile remains pessimistic (which of course is supporting the moves as it represents many minds that are slowly changing to the bullish side), with geopolitical concerns weighing.

Adjusted for CPI, the breakout in European stocks is also compelling; particularly coming after such a long period of ranging -- yet in real terms the index remains far below the previous peaks. Relative to US stocks, it’s still a work in progress in terms of breaking out of the lows; and on this note, European stocks continue to trade at near-record cheap relative value discounts vs US stocks.

With the prospect of stronger global growth, monetary tailwinds, cheap valuations, and rotation (growth to value, US to global), European stocks likely have plenty of room to run.

Macro & Markets: This week we get China Dec/Q4 data, WEF, BOJ rate decision, and a timely macro update from the January flash PMIs. It’s also a shortened weak in the USA with MLK day Monday.

In markets, US 10yr yield is attempting to break higher, DXY pressuring resistance, gold continuing to trend higher, WTI crude oil back to support, stocks consolidating…

Research Agenda:  This week I’ll be looking into fixed income and global equities.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. US Dollar: Remain bearish medium/longer-term given expensive valuations, fading yield support, longer-term technicals, but wary of short-term upsides (sentiment, positioning, seasonality, technicals).

2. EM Equities: Remain bullish emerging market equities given supportive valuations, monetary tailwinds, improving earnings outlook, light allocations, and strong technicals.

3. China Equities: Remain bullish Chinese stocks given strong technicals, supportive valuations, improving sentiment, and mild but gathering macro/monetary tailwinds.

4. Commodities: Remain bullish commodities given cheap valuations, supply tailwinds, improving macro-fundamentals, light allocations, skeptical sentiment, strong technicals.

5. Commodity Equities: Remain bullish given strong technicals, bullish outlook for commodity prices, wary of rising valuations (especially precious metal stocks); but clear scope for upside.

ALSO — Q1 Strategy Pack Webinar replay:

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 12012026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 12012026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Most equity markets moved higher last week, most notably we’ve seen a surge in 52-week new highs across countries and accelerating global advance/decline lines.

Treasury yields continue to consolidate, awaiting cue for next move from data. Risk pricing and credit spreads largely remain contained for now.

In FX, the DXY remains in a trading range; gearing up for next move. Commodities remain a mixed bag, but the key development has been the big breakout in industrial metals.

Market themes: Bullish Rotations...
-Globally stocks are beating bonds.
--global stock/bond ratios are outpacing US stock/bond ratio
-Global stocks in general also beginning to outperform vs US stocks
-Cyclicals ex-tech have been outperforming vs tech, and cyclicals generally outperforming defensives (especially EM)
--overall it’s consistent with bullish rotation, global growth acceleration, and bodes well for global ex-US equities outlook

Across global equities we are seeing a clear trend of stocks beating bonds, with the equal-weighted stock/bond ratio for EM + DM accelerating (consistent with risk-on, global growth acceleration, bullish rotation).

Further, both EM and DM stock/bond ratios are turning the corner vs USA (their stock bond ratios are rising at a faster pace vs US). This echoes the emerging trend we are seeing in pure equities relative performance for EM and DM vs US; these moves kicked-off in 2025 and could well go on to be a key theme for this year.

Within global equities we are seeing “Old Cyclicals” (basically cyclicals ex-tech) starting to outperform vs tech. Seeing cyclicals outperforming vs defensives particularly in EM but also to a lesser extent in DM.

Overall this set of charts is consistent with bullish rotation across sectors, countries, and asset classes; bodes well for global equities ex-US.

Macro & Markets: This week we get China M2/new loans, and from the US: CPI/PPI, NFIB, Philly Fed, NAHB (so an interesting data week, but also plenty going on in geopolitics e.g. Iran, Europe).

In markets, the US 10yr yield remains locked in a tight range, DXY extending rally off support, gold pressuring resistance ~4500, WTI crude oil rebounding off a higher s/t low, stocks breaking higher…

Research Agenda: Back into the Weekly Macro Themes reports this week!

And, in case you missed it -- the Quarterly Strategy Pack was sent out last week.

>> Quarterly Pack ZOOM WEBINAR DETAILS (please register using the relevant link below)

New York -- 4pm Tuesday, 13th January https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/DX9kv3wLTiubg8Wxq0rbAA

London -- 8am Wednesday, 14th January https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/m5jCJfRsR1y_8HodtpT7vA
Best regards,
Callum

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 05012026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 05012026

3.37MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks were largely stronger last week, particularly global ex-US. On the sector front, tech and tech related sectors have peaked in relative terms for now, defensives have bottomed in relative terms but yet to really turn the corner, meanwhile financials + industrials have gained back ground, and commodity sectors are gaining (mostly materials/miners).

In fixed income, short-term rates continue to lean lower, while longer-end yields are consolidating-to-slightly higher (and yield curve ticking up). CDS/Credit spreads and risk pricing in general remains well-contained for now.

In FX, the dollar remains under pressure (particularly vs Asia/EM and commodity currencies). Meanwhile commodities remain a mixed bag with crude oil under pressure, industrial metals rising, precious metals pulling back from the highs, and agri mixed-to-weaker.

Market themes: Global Equities...
-Global Equities are making a strong start to 2026
--breadth is surging, following the brief minor correction late last year
--emerging markets are going strong on all angles
--developed markets are also strong, and global bank stock strength is helping
--as a result of global equity strength, we’ve seen a turning point in global vs US equity relative performance.
-Overall it’s a good sign for global equities.

Global Equities are perking up again after a brief minor correction in November last year; short-term breadth is surging after resetting to the bottom end of the post-April range, and country-level advance/decline lines across the 3 major buckets within global equities are moving sharply higher; indicating broad strength across countries.

Emerging Markets have had a particularly strong run over the past year, and this momentum looks to be gracefully carrying over into 2026, with the MSCI local currency EM index pushing higher (with strong breadth, wide participation) and the big breakout in the equal-weighted US$ EM index seeing further follow-through.

But developed markets (ex-US) are also going strong, and have likewise seen upside breakout follow-through following the brief pullback late last year. A key source of strength in global equities has been the surge in global bank stocks; initial breaking out of the 2017-2025 trading range, and then surging on to new all-time highs last year; again all with strong breadth.

The strong run in developed and emerging markets is helping reinforce the global vs US equities theme, and as things currently stand the high point in US outperformance vs global has been and gone -at least for now.

So a key theme to keep track of is going to be whether the turning point in global vs US equities relative performance turns out to be another bump in the road or a true turning point.

Macro & Markets: This week we get the rest of the December PMI data, China CPI/PPI, and US jobs data.

In markets, the US 10yr yield is pushing up against 4.20% resistance, DXY rebounding off lower support levels, gold pulling back to support, WTI crude pressuring support, bitcoin rallying off support, stocks sold-off to short-term support…

Research Agenda: Will be working on the Q1 Quarterly Strategy Pack this week (with particular emphasis on the 2026 Outlook).

And, in case you missed it -- the December monthly pack was sent out last week.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com