Topdown Charts Monthly February 2026

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Please also take a minute to fill in the client survey (how you rate the key reports and overall service) — please also see alternative link if that link does not work [Click Here].

The Market Cycle Guidebook includes:
-Front page big picture summary, global cycle/monetary/valuation status check
-Market snapshot & commentary (month in review)
-Summary views across asset classes (short and medium term) and TAA guide
-Monthly updated Capital Market Assumptions and supporting charts
-Australia & New Zealand appendix
-And of course, over 70 charts illuminating the key medium-term drivers of risk and return across a global multi-asset universe

Any questions (or requests) just let me know

Best regards,
Callum

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

Please also take a minute to fill in the client survey (how you rate the key reports and overall service):

Client Survey (how you rate the reports)

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 02032026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 02032026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

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Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Rotation remained the key theme last week with global/ex-tech (especially hard cyclicals: industrials, energy, materials) performing well, and US/tech weaker.

In fixed income, US treasury yields ticked lower (likewise developed 10yr govt yields), and US credit spreads/CDS ticked up off the lows.

FX markets remain in a bit of a stalemate with previous USD weakness pausing, but ongoing strength in Asian/EMFX especially CNY. Commodities remain a mixed bag, industrial metals consolidating, precious metals pushing higher, energy elevated and agri mixed.

Market themes: Market Risk...
-Geopolitics rarely have a lasting impact on the stockmarket, unless it damages the macro or comes on top of other issues.
-There is some vulnerability for US stocks as valuations and sentiment are rolling over from overvalued/overhyped conditions (especially tech), so it warrants close monitoring.
-But there are some offsetting factors.

I don’t have much to add on Iran/geopolitics specifically, but in general geopolitical events normally don’t tend to have much enduring impact on the stockmarket beyond the short-term spooky/scary effects unless they really damage the macro in a meaningful way... or if they turn up at the wrong time (e.g. if there were already issues, market was rolling over from stretched conditions). For example, in 2022 the Russian invasion of Ukraine catalyzed the beginning of a bear market, but it came as the market already peaked from overhyped/overvalued conditions in late-2021... and specifically it featured a commodity price spike due to direct effects of the conflict and the sanctions reaction (which drove up already rising inflation and rates).

In the current context, there are actually some parallels e.g. sentiment and valuations rolling over from overhyped and overvalued levels. This means the market is perhaps more sensitive and at risk of downside, but again I think we’d probably need to see the macro damaged from an enduring spike in energy prices and disruption to global trade flows (hard to say at this point, it is a risk, but no firm evidence for this as yet).

The more concerning aspect is that tech stocks have already peaked from overvalued and overhyped starting conditions, and so I would continue to be focused more on that, but also factoring in the risk of oil shock issues.

Having said that, the market had already been pricing in some risk of Iran strikes, so part of that uncertainty has been resolved, and we are seeing the bullish rotation trade (strong absolute and relative performance from cyclicals/global/value/small -- picking up the slack from weakness in tech stocks, and reflecting macro-fundamental improvements). So I don’t think we necessarily panic or go full-bear just yet, as there are offsetting factors. Continuing to monitor the situation.

Macro & Markets: This week we get Feb PMIs and payrolls.

In markets, the US 10yr yield is breaking lower, DXY drifting higher, gold extending rally, WTI crude making initial spike higher on Iran developments, Bitcoin mixed-volatile, stocks mixed (tech lackluster, cyclical/value stronger).

Research Agenda: This week I’m working on the monthly pack.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. GSV vs ULG: remain bullish Global/Small/Value vs US/Large/Growth on absolute and relative valuations (with ample room to run), and notably improved technicals.

2. EM Equities: remain bullish EM equities given strong technicals, breakout in earnings, and strong cyclical momentum overall, but wary of stretched sentiment (+valuations no longer cheap).

3. EM Fixed Income: remain low-conviction bullish on EM sovereign bonds given cheap valuations, improving sentiment/technicals, monetary tailwinds (for now), and benign macro-risk backdrop.

4. EMFX: the improving outlook for EMFX (cheap valuations, improved technicals) is helping reinforce strength in EM equities and EM local currency bonds.

5. Frontier Markets: monitoring situation as valuations are getting expensive (+technical risk flags), but for now still seeing strong bullish momentum and monetary tailwinds.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 23022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 23022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks remain a bit of a mixed bag, with US consolidating (tech down, ex-tech up), and global continuing to advance (global equity bull market very much alive and well by all accounts + rotation remains in play).

In fixed income, treasury yields continue to see downward pressure, but still confined within the range (awaiting catalyst one way or the other i.e. growth scare/risk-off vs inflation/reacceleration). Credit spreads have ticked up off the lows, but the main point of interest in credit markets has been the continued uptrend in tech sector CDS pricing (and emerging downtrend in tech stock prices).

In FX, it’s a picture of consolidation and stalemate. Commodities continued to see mixed prospects, but this time with energy prices picking up vs industrial metal prices coming off the boil, and precious metals still volatile, and agri soft. The Iran situation continues to develop, with ostensible progress/posturing on negotiations for a deal, but otherwise a steady and substantial build-up of US strike + defense capabilities in the region; which is helping energy prices tend to the bullish side (and energy stocks starting to catch-up vs the rest of commodity stocks).

Market themes: US Dollar Outlook...
-DXY is ticking up off support (and oversold conditions)
-Technicals point to risk of a short-term rally
-Yet the bigger/longer-term picture still looks bearish as a larger downtrend looks to be developing (consistent with some of the other macro/market developments).

The DXY has been ticking up off short-term support (and the lower end of its downtrend channel), and with breadth reaching oversold levels. Technically it looks primed for a short-term rally even if the overarching trend still looks to be downwards.

Meanwhile sentiment and positioning have been turning up from previously consensus bearish and crowded shorts, and FX market implied volatility has similarly turned up following a crunch to multi-year lows (we often see contractions and surges in volatility around turning points -- either prior to a change in trend e.g. upwards in this case, or a trend acceleration e.g. a breakdown in this case). Given the developing short-term bullish technicals it warrants close monitoring for possible USD strength flare-ups (which would hurt many of the consensus trades like commodities and global/EM equities).

Yet the bigger picture is still skewed to the bearish side, it still has the look and feel of a bearmarket/downtrend developing, valuations are still slightly expensive, and yield support indicators are still tapering downwards.

So I would continue with the overall medium/longer-term bearish bias, but meanwhile mindful of the short-term upside risks.

Macro & Markets: This week we get US house prices, consumer confidence, PPI, and mid-week Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address.

In markets, US 10yr yield hovering at support, DXY attempting to rally, gold attempting breakout from consolidation, WTI crude pressuring resistance, bitcoin breaking lower, stocks mixed…

Research Agenda: This week I’ll be reviewing fixed income, commodities, equities.

(n.b. there was no Weekly Macro Themes last week as I was moving and did not have time to complete the report, this week will proceed as normal)

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 16022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 16022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Rotation remains the key word, with strengthening absolute returns in cyclicals/global outperforming vs faltering tech/US. Notably, we are starting to see defensive stir (rather than just tech-to-cyclicals rotation so far; more on this issue further down).

In fixed income, late-week saw US 10yr yields ticking lower after an initial run higher. Also of note in the fixed income space has been new highs in tech sector CDS pricing, as tech stock weakness is spilling over into credit markets (isolated to tech for now).

In FX, the USD remains under pressure, Asian/EMFX tending stronger (particularly CNY). Commodities remain a mixed bag yet a common theme is consolidation following previous initial strength (especially in areas of previous recent strength e.g. precious metals).

Market themes: Defensives...
-Defensive stocks made new relative highs late last week.
--this is coming from extreme low allocations and relative valuations.
-Relative strength in defensives is a contrarian bearish risk signal for stocks.

A key development late last week was new relative highs in defensives vs the S&P500, with the equal-weighted basket of defensives breaking out vs its 200-day moving average to multi-month highs (and with bullish relative breadth divergence). This is an important development because defensives were looking stretched to the downside (a contrarian bearish risk signal for stocks), and if this marks the start of a sustained/larger move higher that would be bearish for US stocks (which are already on thin ice with the tech troubles).

As noted, defensives were and are still looking stretched; investor allocations are ticking up from record lows, and the relative value indicator for defensives is ticking up from levels very close to matching those seen at the peak of the dot com bubble. So a promising setup for defensives (in relative terms), and concerning one for the stockmarket as a whole).

Sector-by-sector, consumer staples and utilities have seen the biggest relative gains, but healthcare also looks primed to move higher after a period of consolidation.

Overall there is a consistent picture here.

Macro & Markets: This week we get US NAHB, FOMC minutes, Philly Fed, and Q4 GDP figures. We also get the Feb flash PMIs, and a reminder that China is closed for Chinese New Year this week.

In markets, US 10yr yields are pushing lower, DXY holding support, gold consolidating around 5k, crude oil hovering at short-term support, stocks mixed (S&P500 down to support — but tech down, cyclicals holding up).

Research Agenda: This week I’ll be digging into fixed income and FX, but also of course keeping tabs on tech.

And, in case you missed it -- the key conclusions from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report (let me know if you did not receive it):

1. US Tech Stocks – Risk-Watch: US tech stocks have seen a significant deterioration in technicals following the peak back in October 2025, there is material risk of larger downside for tech stocks (and risk to US stocks in general) given expensive starting point valuations and excesses in sentiment/positioning.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com

The latest Global Cross Asset Market Monitor [Market Chart Pack] is attached below:

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 09022026

Topdown Charts Global Cross Asset Market Monitor 09022026

3.38MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Global Markets Monitor -- Notable Developments

Stocks were somewhat volatile last week, with rotation a key theme. On the sector front, tech and consumer discretionary have been losing ground, while traditional cyclicals have been gaining, and defensives mixed (staples gaining ground). Global stocks continue to gain vs US.

On the fixed income front, treasury yields remain largely in a holding pattern following the initial bounce off the lows. US credit spreads moved slightly higher off the lows.

In FX, the US dollar remains under pressure, Asian/EMFX on an improving path. Commodities remain a volatile and mixed bag, crude oil consolidating, precious metals finding support, agri mixed, industrial metals trending higher.

Market themes: Global Equity Rotation...
-Rotation is the word of the year so far for stocks.
-Seeing previous out-of-favour pairs moving the most (value vs growth, small vs large, EM vs DM).
-A key element has been the peak in (US) Tech in both absolute and relative terms, and there’s a decent chance we see a continuation of these recent trends.

The standouts in styles/factors have been quality, high dividend yield, value vs growth, small vs large, and EM vs DM.

The rotation trade has been most noticeable and most notable in the 3 key pairs that have seen the longest and most extended moves, namely; value vs growth, EM vs DM, small vs large -- basically the long-standing out of favourables. The sharp move in the combined line for those 3 is significant given it comes after a long-term downtrend. But also in so far as it might signal a change in market leadership -- this can have bearish implications for global equities e.g. the unwinding of the dot com bubble, but we have seen this group carry the market higher before e.g. just after the 08 crash, and briefly in 2021.

Looking at it from a sectors angle, both cyclicals and defensives have turned up vs tech; notably ex-tech cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy, financials) have staged a particularly sharp rally vs tech. Meanwhile both EM and DM have been gaining ground vs US stocks.

Staying with tech, the big story has been US tech topping in both absolute and especially relative terms. US tech has taken a tumble vs US non-tech and global ex-US tech after extended exponential runs on both fronts.

Given this is also occurring alongside stretched absolute and relative valuations for US tech, it is something to keep an eye on from a risk perspective, but also as a source of potential further rotation flows, if investors start giving up on tech and looking elsewhere for gains.

Macro & Markets: This week we get China M2/new loans and CPI/PPI, US NFIB small business confidence, delayed Jan payrolls release, and CPI.

In markets, US 10yr yield still in consolidation mode, DXY hovering around support, gold regaining momentum around 5k, WTI crude back to support, Bitcoin initial rebound from precipitous declines of the past week, stocks rebounding off support…

Research Agenda: I’ll be looking into credit spreads, EM fixed income, tech stocks, and agri commodities, among other things this week.

And, in case you missed it -- the January monthly pack was sent out last week.

Best regards, 

Callum Thomas

Head of Research | Topdown Charts Limited | www.topdowncharts.com

Mobile: (+64) 22 378 1552 
Email: callum.thomas@topdowncharts.com